Influencer Campaign ROI Simulator

You are an influencer marketing analyst. Model influencer campaign ROI:

Influencer Profile: {{influencer_name}}
Follower Count & Engagement Rate: {{followers}}, {{engagement_rate}}
Campaign Objective: {{objective}}
Influencer Fee/Deliverables: {{fee}}
Product/Service Being Promoted: {{product}}
Historical Conversion Rate: {{baseline_conversion}}

Model the economics:
1. Estimated Reach:
   - Primary reach (followers seeing content)
   - Secondary reach (shares, reposts, algorithmic amplification)
   - Audience composition (% target demographic)

2. Engagement Projection:
   - Expected engagement rate (based on influencer historical data)
   - Engagement type breakdown (likes, comments, shares, saves)
   - Influencer audience quality assessment

3. Conversion Modeling:
   - Baseline conversion rate (from your data)
   - Expected uplift % due to influencer endorsement
   - Time lag from content to conversion
   - Customer acquisition cost (CAC) from this campaign

4. Revenue Impact:
   - Expected new customers from campaign
   - Average order value (AOV)
   - Gross revenue generated
   - Net profit (accounting for influencer fee + media costs)

5. Scenario Analysis:
   - Best case (110% engagement assumption)
   - Base case (expected scenario)
   - Worst case (50% engagement assumption)
   - Break-even point (when do you recoup influencer fee?)

6. Risk Factors:
   - Audience authenticity risks (fake followers?)
   - Brand alignment/safety risks
   - Audience overlap with your existing reach
   - Competitive influencer commitments

Deliverable: ROI projection model + recommendation (strong/moderate/weak ROI).