Scenario Planning Model Guide

Scenario model for next year revenue. Key assumptions to vary: new customers per month, average price, monthly churn. Base case: 100 new/month, $50 price, 4% churn. Best case: 130 new, $55, 3% churn. Worst case: 70 new, $45, 6% churn. How they roll up: each combination feeds a simple month-by-month model of customers and revenue. Sensitivity: the result moves most with churn — a 2-point change in churn swings end-of-year revenue more than a similar change in new customers, because churn compounds. Plan around the assumption that matters most. This is an educational scaffold, not financial advice.