Task Estimate Calibration

Past tasks with estimates vs. actual:
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Analyze:
1. Average estimation error (over/under)
2. Task types consistently mispredicted
3. External factors that created slippage
4. Your baseline estimation unit (hours, points)
5. Confidence level by task complexity

Create:
1. Adjusted estimation multiplier (e.g., × 1.3 for complex tasks)
2. Risk buffer recommendations
3. Categories requiring expert input
4. Escalation thresholds for revised estimates