prompt

Correlation vs Causation Validator

Structurally validate whether a metric correlation can support causal claims or requires controlled testing.

Updated June 2026
The prompt
I observed {{metric_1}} and {{metric_2}} are {{correlation_strength}} correlated over {{time_window}}. Stakeholder claim: "{{stakeholder_claim}}"

Assess causal validity:
1. Temporal ordering — does {{metric_1}} lead {{metric_2}}?
2. Confounders — what variables could explain both (seasonality, user cohort, external event)?
3. Reverse causality — could {{metric_2}} cause {{metric_1}}?
4. Correlation strength — how sensitive is the relationship to time lag or aggregation level?
5. Plausible mechanism — is there a business reason for causality?

Recommend: accept claim / reject / test with A/B experiment. Propose experiment design if needed.
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Variables

First metric
Second metric
Correlation strength (weak/moderate/strong)
Time window observed
Stakeholder's causal claim

Details

Author

AI Khazna

License

Security

Type

prompt

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